Gestion du Covid-19 : la douloureuse comparaison France-Allemagne

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Angela Merkel lors de la réunion hebdomadaire avec son cabinet, le 6 mai 2020 à Berlin.

La vérité simple et visible est que les ravages du coronavirus sont, à ce jour, bien moindres de l’autre côté du Rhin.

La comparaison des situations en Allemagne et en France dans la crise du coronavirus est cruelle pour notre pays. Même si des circonstances fortuites ont pu avoir une part dans le fait que le nombre de morts du Covid-19 est très inférieur, en Allemagne, à ce qu’il est en France, et même si la chancelière Merkel a mis en garde ses compatriotes contre l’illusion d’être sortis d’affaire, la vérité simple et visible est que les ravages du coronavirus sont, à ce jour, bien moindres de l’autre côté du Rhin.

Le mutisme des dirigeant·es politiques de tout bord, en France, à ce sujet, est explicable; personne n’aime constater la faiblesse de son pays. Les deux partis qui ont alterné au pouvoir depuis quarante ans en partagent la responsabilité. Quant aux oppositions d’extrême gauche et d’extrême droite, leur nationalisme camouflé ou proclamé et leur rejet de l’Union européenne leur interdisent de reconnaître que l’Allemagne est économiquement, socialement et médicalement plus efficace et plus sûre que la France.

Le mystère des tests

La question des tests est à la fois intrigante et particulièrement révélatrice de l’écart entre les deux pays. Dès le 17 janvier, le laboratoire allemand qui a mis au point un test de dépistage a communiqué son protocole, via l’OMS, à toutes les institutions et entreprises intéressées. En Allemagne, le test est entré aussitôt en production, avec les moyens nécessaires à son utilisation (réactifs, ustensiles). La directive de l’OMS, le célèbre «testez, testez, testez!», lancée fin mars, était ainsi appliquée depuis deux mois dans ce pays.

Un drive-in de test coronavirus à Berlin, le 30 avril 2020.

Le 17 janvier, il n’était question, en France, que des grèves et manifestations contre la réforme des retraites. Le 23 janvier, jour où les autorités chinoises ont ordonné le confinement de la population de Wuhan, Agnès Buzyn, alors ministre de la Santé, a indiqué que les services d’urgences des hôpitaux étaient en alerte et que la France disposait d’un test qui permettrait d’identifier «en quelques heures» un éventuel cas de contamination. D’où venait ce test? Nul ne le sait. Une information a été donnée le lendemain par certains médias, selon laquelle la France commandait des tests en Allemagne.

C’est ce vendredi 24 janvier que trois cas de Covid-19 ont été diagnostiqués –les premiers en Europe, semble-t-il–, l’un à Paris, deux à Bordeaux. Ce jour-là, le projet de réforme du système de retraite passait en conseil des ministres; les médias comptaient les manifestants dans les rues.

Un mois plus tard, en Allemagne, le principal producteur de tests, à Berlin, en avait fourni quatre millions; il les produisait ensuite au rythme de 1,5 million par semaine. Début avril, l’Institut Robert-Koch, l’agence du gouvernement fédéral pour la lutte contre les épidémies, indiquait que plus de 900.000 tests avaient été pratiqués et qu’ils l’étaient désormais au rythme de 50.000 par jour, grâce au travail de 85 laboratoires publics et privés. Il paraît établi que cette pratique a permis d’identifier les porteurs du virus et d’éviter, par des mesures incitatives, qu’ils ne s’approchent de sujets à risque, c’est-à-dire, principalement, des personnes âgées. Les informations réunies par les organismes compétents montrent que celles-ci ont été moins touchées, ce qui explique une mortalité très inférieure à celle que connaît la France.

Dépenses de santé comparables, rendements inégaux

La comparaison des systèmes de santé des deux pays est également instructive. Il a été justement relevé que les hôpitaux publics allemands disposaient de 25.000 à 30.000 lits de réanimation, les hôpitaux français de… 5.000. Elie Cohen et Olivier Galland ont présenté ici les données récentes de l’OCDE, établissant que le système de santé français n’est pas dans l’état décrit par les partis d’opposition, par certains syndicats, par des mandarins du système et par les médias du service public. Mais si la France dépense un peu plus que l’Allemagne pour son système de santé, le coronavirus en a révélé l’infériorité, comparé à son voisin, pour les capacités d’accueil et de traitement en soins intensifs.

 Les fautes sont imputables aux gouvernances médicale, administrative et politique, celles d’aujourd’hui et celles d’hier.

Les bureaux tiennent plus de place dans les hôpitaux publics français (plus de 35% du total des emplois, contre 24% en Allemagne) et les personnels autres que les médecins sont moins bien payés. Les relations entre le réseau public et les hôpitaux privés sont moins bonnes qu’outre-Rhin. Les hôpitaux français ont-ils «tenu», comme on nous enjoint sur tous les tons de le croire? Les chiffres (quelque 23.000 morts ici fin avril, moins de 6.000 en Allemagne) incitent à la réserve. Assurément, les personnels se sont dévoués sans compter leur peine. Les fautes sont imputables aux gouvernances médicale, administrative et politique, celles d’aujourd’hui et celles d’hier.

L’Allemagne a 83 millions d’habitants, la France 67 millions. Les profils économiques des deux pays étant identique pour l’essentiel, l’écart de population explique en partie la différence de richesse totale: le PIB de l’Allemagne est de 4,6 billions de dollars et celui de la France de 3,2 billions de dollars (chiffres OCDE pour 2019). Cependant, par habitant, la valeur produite en un an est de 56.000 dollars en Allemagne et de 48.000 en France. Le taux de chômage était, au quatrième trimestre de 2019, de 3,1% en Allemagne et de 8,2% en France. Faut-il rappeler que les comptes publics allemands étaient en excédent depuis 2014 et que l’endettement public représentait, avant la crise sanitaire, 61% du PIB en Allemagne, 98% en France (chiffres OCDE pour 2018) ?

Un écart de 1 à 10 des plans d’urgence économique

C’est ainsi que, malgré l’absence de cet ISF qui passionne tant les réseaux sociaux et Thomas Piketty, le gouvernement allemand a pu mettre en place un plan de 1.100 milliards d’euros pour aider les entreprises, rémunérer les salarié·es et le chômage partiel, soutenir les indépendant·es, les auto-entrepreneur·es, les artistes, compenser les impayés de loyer, et même… augmenter les capacités de soins intensifs des hôpitaux pour le cas où la sortie du confinement entraînerait une augmentation du nombre de malades. Le plan français de soutien à l’économie s’élève pour le moment au dixième de cette somme.

Faut-il rappeler aussi que ce pays qu’il de bon temps de mépriser dans les journaux et les micros parisiens a accueilli et intégré près de 1,2 million de réfugié·es et de migrant·es du Proche-Orient en 2015-2016, quand l’hypothèse d’en recevoir quelques milliers provoquait en France une sorte d’union sacrée pour la fermeture des frontières?

En 1990, alors que sa réunification imposait à l’Allemagne une charge écrasante, certains dirigeants français dont le Premier ministre, Michel Rocard, croyaient pouvoir rêver –schadenfreude, quand tu nous tiens!– d’une croissance supérieure à celle de notre voisin. Trente ans après, les gouvernants qui ont un passé rocardien (Édouard Philippe) ou qui se sont réclamés de cette filiation (Emmanuel Macron) supplient l’Allemagne de cautionner sur les marchés de capitaux le passif dont ils ont hérité et qu’ils n’ont d’autre choix que d’aggraver.

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